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| CITY OF BRANDON PREPAREDNESS INFLUENZA PANDEMIC Fall 2009 What is the threat? Human influenza viruses circulate every year. Since the viruses change slightly each year most people have some specific immunity. Scientists can generally track the variations to develop an annual vaccine to prevent influenza. H1N1 Although the H1N1 virus is now likely present in all Canadian communities it has to date produced a mild illness. Our planning is largely focused on managing a situation where the virus has undergone a significant genetic shift that results in a severe illness for which people have little immunity. Such a situation is likely to cause significant numbers of ill people and an increased death rate. If such a situation does develop it is anticipated that the first wave will sweep across Canada in 1 to 2 months and there are likely to be two or more waves, each lasting locally from 6 to 8 weeks. There may also be more than one wave in a 12 month period. What might the impact be on the City? Using a worst case scenario as the basis of our planning it is anticipated that more than 70% of the population will be infected over the course of the pandemic with 35% having symptoms requiring some medical attention. A normal flu results in 10 to 25% of the population with flu symptoms. The majority of cases will occur in the first wave. For a moderate impact illness (like 1957 and 1968) the illness may cause 1% to be hospitalized and 0.4% to die. A severe impact illness is likely to cause 10% to be hospitalized and 1.25% to die. Those who recover from a particular strain will be immune to that strain in the future. Most people who get ill will recover after a few days of rest and not everyone who gets ill will require hospitalization. Community services and activities may be curtailed, consolidated or suspended due to absenteeism and as a means of preventing the spread of infection. Supply chains of all resources may be disrupted. (Canadian Influenza Pandemic Plan / Health Sector) How many will be absent from workplaces? A worst case scenario would likely see an estimated 20 to 25% illness rate during a peak two week period (average winter illness rate is 8%). It is likely that some workplace avoidance absenteeism may occur and that School and Daycare closures may increase absenteeism for about 3.6% of workforce. (Canadian Influenza Pandemic Plan for Health Sector) What is the City’s role? An influenza pandemic is a complex public health emergency that is primarily the responsibility of the health sector to develop response strategies for managing. The City’s Emergency Management role in a pandemic will be: 1. manage the normal range of non-health events and in a worst case situation provide critical services that have been identified as: potable water, Police, Fire, Emergency Medical Services, Airport, and Operations in support of these services. 2. coordinate the provision of support to the community 3. provide support to the health sector Does the City have a plan? As part of the City of Brandon’s all hazards approach to emergency management the Emergency Response Control Group has developed a Pandemic Plan. This plan contains measures to reduce the impact of a severe flu outbreak and allows the City to continue to provide the identified critical services. The Emergency Operations Centre will provide the supporting framework for all of the response plans that have been developed throughout the organization in response to a pandemic threat. The City of Brandon has some specific measures that have been included in the planning. The intent of these measures is to reduce the number of City of Brandon employees who are ill at any one time so that City services will experience as little disruption as possible. Measures include:
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